Trust vote motion will be moved by the Prime Minister as soon as the Lok Sabha meets at 11 am. The PM will speak first and BJP leader L.K. Advani will respond

All eyes will be on New Delhi over the next two days (and perhaps beyond that), as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government desperately tries to garner the requisite numbers to survive the "Trust Vote" in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday. The lower house of parliament will be convened today for a two-day special session. Trust vote motion will be moved by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh as soon as the Lok Sabha meets at 11 am. The Prime Minister will speak first and BJP leader L.K. Advani will respond. Rahul Gandhi and Sachin Pilot are also likely to take part in the debate. The UPA has a list of about a dozen speakers, including Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Sharad Pawar. The actual vote will take place on Tuesday, anytime between 8 am and 10 pm.

The vote is too close to call as the Left, BSP and UNPA drum up support against the nuclear deal and the Congress-led coalition. On the other hand, the UPA is heavily dependent on abstentions and defections from the opposition camp to survive the trial of strength. The emergence of the Third Front, led by Mayawati, Left parties and UNPA, has put both, the UPA and the NDA on the defensive. But, the Congress and SP, who have been taken aback by the sudden rise in Mayawati's stature, are in turn trying hard to lure opposition members. Most political parties are likely to be embarrassed as a lot of cross-voting is expected.

All political parties are witnessing defections, as MPs drive a hard bargain in exchange for their support. The last few days have revealed the true colours of India's ever deteriorating politics. MPs and parties are switching loyalties like chameleons change colour. Politicians are in great demand, with parties resorting to aggressive poaching. Over the weekend, the JMM decided to vote for the UPA, while RLD and JD(S) chose to partner the BSP. Two MPs of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) will vote against the Government. There were also reports that some Shiv Sena MPs were negotiating with the Congress.

Simple arithmetic shows there are no clear winners with 267 MPs in favour of the Congress-led coalition and 269 against it. The JD(S) and RLD moves have clearly upset UPA calculations. The six combined seats of RLD and JD(S), which the Congress was banking on could prove to be critical. But, there is some good news for the Government, as Omar Abdullah's National Conference is widely expected to vote in favour of the nuke deal. The UPA is now likely to woo independents and the other undecided MPs or get some of the members to abstain from the vote.

What will happen to the Nuclear deal, if the UPA falls the trust vote? Will we have early polls as well? Who will come to power at the Centre post elections? There are too many questions over the fate of the Government (and the N-deal). Like cricket or any sport, anything is possible in Indian politics. History shows even a single vote (or lack of it) has been able to change the fortunes of the incumbent regime.